Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers and Macro Expectations Intertwined, SHFE Tin Breaks Through 310,000 Mark in Afternoon Session [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the morning of December 3, 2025, the SHFE tin futures market showed a pattern of fluctuating upward. At the midday close, the most-traded contract, sn2601, was quoted at 312,390 yuan/mt, up 6,590 yuan from the previous day's settlement price, a gain of 2.16%. The futures opened high and moved higher, with the intraday high touching 313,150 yuan and the low at 304,670 yuan, resulting in an amplitude of 2.76%. Market trading was active, with clear signs of capital inflow.

During the same period, tin prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) also showed a synchronous upward trend. As of the latest data, three-month LME tin was quoted at $39,680/mt, up 2.16%.

In terms of influencing factors, supply-side concerns remain the main driver supporting tin prices. The escalating geopolitical conflict in the eastern region of the DRC has led to blocked logistics channels and rising supply chain costs. Although the core mining area, Bisie, has not yet been directly impacted, market expectations for tightening medium and long-term tin ore supply continue to intensify.

From a macro perspective, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined. Rising expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut in December have boosted the non-ferrous metals sector, but US dollar volatility and pressure for a correction in risk assets coexist. Domestic policy expectations support market sentiment, but weak economic data constrain the upside room for prices. Overall, the SHFE tin market is fluctuating at highs amid the interplay of supply concerns, low inventory, and diverging demand. In the short term, it is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend.